交易动力：

❄️Keytruda goes off-patent in 2028.

 Merck must bridge a ~$30B revenue cliff.

靠啥补？

🔹$11B Prometheus (IBD)

🔹$680M Harpoon (T-cell engagers)

🔹$10B Verona adds a new franchise in respiratory

📶预期给市场提供什么信号？

US peak sales could double globally under Merck by 2032.

默克为啥付钱？

Merck is paying $10B for clarity, speed, and global COPD upside.

为啥买？潜力到底在哪？需要啥价值？

资产现状和可预期价值： Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine)

🔹FIC dual PDE3/4 inhibitor

🔹Inhaled, non-steroidal bronchodilator/anti-inflam

🔹Approved for COPD, launch began in 2Q25

🔹Peak sales est: $3–4B+ if uptake delivers

🔹23% premium to last close ($107 vs $87)

🔹2024 sales: negligible

🔹2025E sales: ~$200M

🔹The asset is inhalable, oral, or requires no cold chain.

资产潜在价值：（本项目是可拓展适应症）

🔹Asthma

🔹Bronchiectasis

🔹Long-COVID

买了啥确定性？（2 个核心原因）

🔹It’s de-risked. COPD is huge, under-innovated

🔹Verona has clean Ph3 + FDA approval.

带动了啥交易趋势？

👉COPD is hot again

👉Steroid-sparing inhalables are viable

👉Dual-mechanism pulmonary drugs are back

带动了啥并购趋势？

🔹Average biotech M&A premium = 62%

🔹Verona’s deal: ~23%

🔹For de-risked, launch-stage assets, pharma pays preemptively.

啥资产价值会涨价？

🔹Inhaled

🔹Small molecule

🔹No biologic cold chain

🔹Easy to prescribe, scale, and distribute

🔹The market will rediscover high-convenience small molecules in I&I and respiratory.

MNC 的交易趋势有何改变？

不买啥

🔹Merck isn’t buying a platform or a pipeline.

要买啥

✅ A de-risked, approvable drug

✅ Real revenue starting now

✅ Expansion potential into adjacent indications

✅ Fit with their existing infrastructure

🔹Late-phase assets

🔹Pivotal catalysts in <12 months

🔹Clear payer story

🔹Commercial scalability

MNC 交易标准的变化：

🔹1 drug

🔹Approved or post-Ph3

🔹Launch underway

🔹Commercial path clear

🔹Expansion optionality baked in

为交易双方提供了什么核心价值？

【The next M&A wave favors real products, real launches, and clean safety, not platforms stuck in Phase 1.】